No September surge: Job losses mount as UK payrolls shrink by 142,000
Reports show that the number of payrolled employees fell by 142,000 between July 2024 and July 2025.2 With graduate opportunities also suffering, listings for entry-level graduate jobs are down 33% year-on-year, reaching their lowest level in seven years.
This decline hasn’t gone unnoticed. Globally, searches for “will the job market get better in 2025/2026” are rising across major economies.
Australia: up 150% YoY
UK: up 92% YoY
Ireland: up 50% YoY
Germany: up 33% YoY
US: up 28.5% YoY
Canada: up 23.8% YoY
Location | Monthly searches for ‘when will the job market improve’ 2024 | Monthly searches for ‘when will the job market improve’ 2025 | YoY Change |
Australia | 40 | 100 | 150% |
UK | 250 | 480 | 92% |
Ireland | 20 | 30 | 50% |
Germany | 30 | 40 | 33.30% |
United States | 3680 | 4730 | 28.50% |
The data shows a clear increase in global interest around the question, “When will the job market improve?” over the past year. Australia saw the largest relative jump, with searches up 150% year-on-year, while the UK followed closely with a 92% increase. Ireland and Germany also recorded notable rises of 50% and 33%, respectively, and even in the United States, already the country with the highest search volume, interest grew by 28.5%.
1. The September Surge Didn’t Happen and What That Implies
September usually brings a spike in hiring as employers reopen budgets and job seekers return to the market, but this year the expected “September surge” failed to happen. Vacancies continue to fall, with nine of 18 industry sectors reporting declines, and total openings are down 119,000 compared with a year ago (–14%), leaving many roles still below pre-pandemic levels by around 8.4%. 1
Yet, workforce jobs are slightly higher year-on-year (+139,000), and public sector employment has grown by 17,000 (+0.3%).2 The lack of a strong rebound suggests businesses are holding off on recruitment, whether due to rising costs, uncertainty, or softening demand, creating a cautious and uneven market.
2. Graduates and high-skill workers face pressure but retain opportunities
Graduates are feeling the pressure, with listings for entry-level roles down 33% year-on-year. Employment rates remain relatively high, around 87.6%, and unemployment among graduates is lower than the national average at roughly 3.1%, compared with 68% employment and 5.6% unemployment for non-graduates.1
At the same time, sectors like AI, green technology, and sustainability are increasingly moving toward skills-based hiring: AI-related roles have grown 21% in postings since 2018, while the need for formal degrees has dropped 15%, offering opportunities for those with practical experience.2
3. Job market gaps vary widely across regions and sectors
The market remains uneven across sectors and regions. London and the Southeast continue to offer stronger labour markets, higher pay, and more growth industries, while former industrial areas and rural regions struggle with higher unemployment and inactivity due to skills gaps and weaker infrastructure. Liverpool and Newcastle, in particular, have seen the biggest year-on-year increases in searches for “when will the job market improve,” showing local concern.
Sectorally, construction and wholesale & retail trade have seen the biggest declines.1 This split means opportunities are concentrated in certain regions and industries, requiring job seekers to be strategic about where they look.
4. October is likely to bring only a slight improvement
October could bring a modest lift as seasonal hiring, contract renewals, and end-of-year projects create opportunities. Resilient sectors such as healthcare, cybersecurity, and green technology are still recruiting, and small improvements in inflation or business confidence could encourage further hiring.
However, the overall decline in vacancies, slow replacement of roles, and rising unemployment-to-vacancy ratio (2.3 unemployed per vacancy, up from 1.7 a year ago) suggest any recovery will be limited and uneven, meaning the market is likely to improve gradually rather than surge.1,2
5. So, when (and how) does it get better?
Recovery is expected to be uneven and gradual. Late 2025 and early 2026 may mark the bottoming phase, with public services, health, and green sectors stabilising and selective hiring resuming. A more visible recovery could arrive by mid-2026 if interest rates ease, investment improves, and business confidence rises, while full normalisation in many sectors may take until 2027, particularly in lagging regions.1,2
Zoe Blogg, managing director at Reboot Online, comments on standing out in a crowded job market:
“It’s clear that the UK job market isn’t collapsing, it’s evolving. Certain sectors and regions are stabilising and even growing, but caution remains widespread. Job seekers should focus on adaptability, upskilling, and targeting sectors where demand is resilient. Those who do will find opportunities, even in a cautious market.
Competition is high, so practical steps matter: tailor CVs to highlight measurable achievements in high-demand sectors, upskill through courses or certifications, network strategically, and emphasise transferable skills like leadership, problem-solving, and digital literacy. By combining sector awareness with proactive personal development, candidates can navigate the market successfully and seize emerging opportunities.”