One in three transport & storage firms saw August turnover fall; just 6% expect an October rebound
The UK’s transport & storage sector is sliding into the peak trading season on the back foot, according to the latest Office for National Statistics (ONS) Business Insights and Conditions Survey.
Analysis of the survey by the home delivery expert Parcelhero reveals 33.7% of transport & storage sector businesses (the sector which includes couriers, hauliers and warehousing firms) reported that their turnover decreased in August compared with July. That is up from just 13.8% the previous month. Only 2.7% reported an increase, down from 15.2% in July.
Parcelhero’s head of consumer research, David Jinks MILT, says: ‘The transport & storage sector’s performance now sits below the all-business picture, where 28.3% reported a fall and 11.9% a rise. The contrast with manufacturing in particular is stark. Although 27.5% of manufacturers also saw turnover fall, a healthier 25.8% reported growth, up from 15.4% in July. The wholesale & retail sector was closer to transport, with 31.4% reporting a fall and 11.7% an increase.
‘Transport & storage has gone from holding up well in July to being the weakest of these three sectors. Barely one in 36 firms saw turnover grow in August, while one in three saw it fall. Manufacturers, by contrast, are showing real signs of life, with more than a quarter reporting growth.
‘The survey, covering 7–20 September, also asked what particular challenges were currently impacting turnover. The most commonly cited challenge for transport & storage businesses was competition, at 18.8%, followed by economic uncertainty (17.3%), cost of materials (13.5%) and insufficient domestic demand (11.7%). The last of these has surged from 2.1% in the previous survey.
‘Other sectors are facing their own challenges. 42.7% of manufacturers cited the cost of materials and 33.9% cited economic uncertainty. In wholesale & retail, 33.9% cited economic uncertainty, 27.6% the cost of materials and 27.3% competition.
‘Manufacturers and retailers can point to input costs and a nervous economy. Transport & storage firms largely can’t. A third say nothing is holding them back, and nearly a quarter simply replied they were unsure what the challenges facing them are. The jump in firms citing weak domestic demand suggests the problem is fewer parcels and pallets moving, rather than costs spiralling. That is arguably harder to fix.
Limited expectations for October
‘Expectations for October offer limited comfort. Only 6.1% of transport & storage firms expect turnover to rise, although that is up slightly from 4.6% last time. 16.4% expect a fall, up from 11.3%, and 28.6% are unsure. The share expecting no change has dropped from 62.8% to 48.9%.
‘Manufacturers are markedly more optimistic for October, with 23.5% expecting growth against 19.3% expecting a decline. Wholesale & retail is more guarded, with 14% expecting growth and 16.6% a fall, though 56.1% expect stability.
‘Measured by net balance (the share of firms reporting growth minus the share reporting a fall), transport & storage swung from a marginal positive of 1.4 percentage points in July to minus 31 in August, a 32.4-point deterioration. Manufacturing moved the other way, improving from minus 10.3 to minus 1.7, while wholesale & retail slipped from minus 7.5 to minus 19.7. For all businesses, the August net balance was minus 16.4, so transport & storage fell well below the average.
‘The forward-looking data points the same way. Transport & storage’s October net balance is minus 10.3, worse than September’s minus 6.7. Manufacturing remains positive at plus 4.2, although down from plus 7.3, and retail has improved from minus 6.7 to minus 2.6.
‘October should be the start of the run-in to peak, yet fewer than one in 16 transport & storage businesses expect growth and more than a quarter can’t call it. With Black Friday and the Christmas rush approaching, the sector needs demand to arrive quickly. Manufacturers are starting to look ahead with confidence but logistics firms are still waiting for a reason to.
‘While the short term outlook for the transport & storage sector shows some cause for concern, its rapid adoption of new technologies and strategies to adapt to the continuing growth of e-commerce means any dips are likely to be temporary. The longer term outlook for the sector is exciting. Parcelhero’s latest industry report, “Delivering the Future”, reveals how the way we order and receive goods will change between now and 2030, and what e-commerce might look like by 2060 and beyond. The full report is available at https://www.parcelhero.com/en-gb/resources/ebooks/delivering-the-future