Retail sales fall for the ninth consecutive month – CBI Distributive Trades Survey
Retailers reported that annual sales volumes fell at a sharp pace in June, according to the latest CBI Distributive Trades Survey. This marked the ninth month in a row of declining volumes. Retailers expect sales to fall again in July.
Key findings included:
- Retail sales volumes fell at a sharp rate in the year to June (weighted balance of -46% from -27% in May). Retailers expect sales to decline rapidly again next month (-49%).
- Sales volumes for the time of year were judged to be “poor” in June, to a greater extent than in May (-37% from -19% in May). Retailers expect July’s sales to fall short of seasonal norms to a broadly similar degree (-38%).
- Online retail sales volumes rose slightly in the year to June (+6% from +37% in May) and are expected to grow again next month (+8%).
- Wholesale annual sales volumes declined at a slower pace in the year to June (-34% from -48% in May). Wholesalers expect sales to fall again in May (-39%).
- Total distribution sales volumes (including retail, wholesale, and motor trades) contracted at a fast pace year-on-year in June (-39% from -43% in May). Sales are expected to fall at a similar rate in July (-42%).
Martin Sartorius, principal economist, CBI, said: “Retail sales volumes fell rapidly in the year to June, extending the recent downturn into its ninth consecutive month. The contraction in retail was mirrored across wholesale and motor trades, with many firms reporting that consumer caution continues to hold back sales. These data suggest that underlying activity remains subdued in the distribution sector.
“The Industrial Strategy, therefore, comes at a critical time, setting out a credible plan to boost long term growth. Firms in the retail and broader distribution sector will welcome the investment in skills and the reduction of regulatory burdens, but these must go beyond the priority growth sectors to meaningfully boost local and national prosperity.”
In addition, data from the survey showed:
- Retail orders placed upon suppliers declined in the year to June at the fastest pace since December 2023 (-51% from -41% in May). Retailers anticipate orders will fall at a broadly similar rate next month (-53%).
- Retail stock volumes in relation to expected demand rose in June (+26% from +12% in May; long-run average of +17%) and are set to remain elevated in July (+27%).
- Motor trade sales volumes contracted in the year to June (-37% from -65% in May). The decline in sales is anticipated to continue in July (-34%).