Rising inflation defies expectations
Period Covered: 01 – 07 January 2026
- Shop price inflation increased to 1.5% year on year in January, against growth of 0.7% in December. This is above the 3-month average of 0.9%.
- Non-Food inflation increased to 0.3% year on year in January, against a decline of 0.6% in December. This is above the 3-month average of -0.3%.
- Food inflation increased to 3.9% year on year in January, against growth of 3.3% in December. This is above the 3-month average of 3.4%.
- Fresh Food inflation increased to 4.4% year on year in January, against growth of 3.8% in December. This is above the 3-month average of 3.9%.
Ambient Food inflation increased to 3.1% year on year in January, against growth of 2.5% in December. This is above the 3-month average of 2.6%.
| Overall SPM | Food | Non-Food | ||||
| % Change | On last year | On last month | On last year | On last month | On last year | On last month |
| Jan-26 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 3.9 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| Dec-25 | 0.7 | 0.0 | 3.3 | 0.3 | -0.6 | -0.1 |
Note: Month-on-month % change refers to changes in the level of prices.
Helen Dickinson, chief executive of the BRC, said: “Any suggestion that inflation has peaked is simply not borne out by these figures. Shop price inflation jumped this month due to high business energy costs and the hike to National Insurance continuing to feed through to prices. Meat, fish and fruit were particularly affected, also reflecting weak supply and stronger demand, while non-food categories, including furniture, flooring, and health and beauty, all saw inflation rise.
“It is a challenging time for households. Retailers do what they can to keep prices down in a competitive market, but thin margins and rising costs of Government policy make it harder. Government must double down on costs in order to support households. A good place to look is the spiralling energy charges, especially non‑commodity levies, which are raising operating costs, squeezing margins and flowing through into retail prices.”
Mike Watkins, head of retailer and business insight, NIQ, said: “Shoppers are always cautious about spending in January and this will not be helped by the continuation of inflation. However, there are still savings to be made at the checkout as some non-food retailers are still on promotion and many food retailers continue to reduce prices on everyday items as a way to drive footfall.”