Rising sales not enough to fend off job losses and store closures
Covering the four weeks 06 July to 02 August 2025
- UK Total retail sales increased by 2.5% year on year in July, against a growth of 0.5% in July 2024. This was above the 12-month average growth of 1.9%.
- Food sales increased by 3.9% year on year in July, against a growth of 3.3% in July 2024. This was above the 12-month average growth of 3.2%.
- Non-Food sales increased by 1.4% year on year in July, against a decline of 1.8% in July 2024. This was above the 12-month average growth of 0.8%.
- In-Store Non-Food sales increased by 1.9% year on year in July, against a decline of 3% in July 2024. This was above the 12-month average growth of 0.2%.
- Online Non-Food sales increased by 0.3% year on year in July, against a growth of 0.3% in July 2024. This was below the 12-month average growth of 1.9%.
- The online penetration rate (the proportion of Non-Food items bought online) decreased to 34.8% in July from 35.1% in July 2024. This was below the 12-month average of 36.7%.
Helen Dickinson, chief executive of the British Retail Consortium, said: “Food sales did well in early July thanks to warm weather and a packed sporting schedule, though this momentum failed to hold for the rest of the month. Rising food inflation meant increased spending was more a result of higher prices than improved demand. Fashion sold well early in the month, but deteriorated as weather worsened, while homeware and indoor furniture grew steadily, recovering from the previous year’s decline. Gaming and toys sold particularly well, as nostalgic adults purchased products like Lego.
“With sales growth at these levels, it is barely touching the sides of covering the £7bn new costs imposed on retailers at the last Budget. If the upcoming Autumn Budget sees more taxes levied on retailers’ shoulders many will be forced to make difficult choices about the future of shops and jobs, and ongoing pressure would push prices higher. Ultimately, this means more families struggling, particularly those on lower incomes, reduced consumer spending and a drag on economic growth.”
Linda Ellett, UK head of consumer, retail & leisure, KPMG, said: “The UK’s fifth warmest July on Met Office record brought a boost to home appliance and food and drink sales. But rising inflation was also a driver of the latter and monthly non-food sales are only growing at around 1% on average at present. With employment costs having risen and inflation both a business and consumer side pressure, it remains a challenging trading environment for many retailers.
“While the majority of consumers that KPMG surveys are confident in their ability to balance their monthly household budgets, big ticket purchases are more considered in the context of rising essential costs and ongoing caution about the economy and labour market. Holidays are the priority for many this summer but those heading away have had to account for a higher cost of travel. Consequently, spending in some areas of the retail sector remains subdued and competition for consumer spend will remain fierce.”
Food & Drink sector performance | Sarah Bradbury, CEO, IGD, said: “July’s shopper confidence fell to zero for the first time since April, cooling alongside the weather despite boosts from Wimbledon and the Lionesses’ win. More households are feeling the pinch yet trust in the industry rose by three points. With food price inflation climbing to 4.5% and economic uncertainty growing, shoppers face a tough outlook. Own label products continue to outperform brands, but modest volume growth shows inflation is masking any gains. A potential interest rate cut, and a sunny bank holiday could offer a much-needed boost at the end of the summer.”