Shutdown ends, markets brace for torrent of delayed US data
The US government shutdown has ended but now all investors’ eyes turn to critical data that has been missing, says the CEO of global financial advisory giant deVere Group.
The comments from Nigel Green come as federal agencies begin recovering after being inactive since October 1, with employees returning on Thursday and departments preparing for a slow return to full function after forty-three days offline.
President Donald Trump has signed the funding bill that reopens government operations following the narrow House vote. Services restart immediately, yet the federal bureaucracy now faces a substantial backlog.
Markets welcomed the end of the impasse, although the political resolution does not settle the market narrative.
Investors now confront the arrival of delayed reports that will determine whether the economy continues to cool at a measured pace or whether conditions deteriorated more than expected during the shutdown.
Nigel Green says: “The reopening matters for the country, but the meaning for investors is found in the information that returns from this week. We move into a stretch when multiple, critical delayed reports land in quick succession.
“Markets have been trading without the numbers that normally shape expectations, and this changes the dynamic.”
The labour market is central to this shift. Private-sector data produced during the shutdown showed job losses averaging more than eleven thousand a week through late October.
The Chicago Federal Reserve’s real-time unemployment estimate suggested a slight rise from September. These indicators implied that the labour market may be losing momentum after a long stretch of resilience.
Yet these figures arrived without the usual confirmation from government releases, and investors now wait to see whether official data aligns with those signals.
Nigel Green says: “The labour market holds the key to the next stage. Evidence from private studies points to cooling conditions.
“Investors need official confirmation to judge whether this cooling is modest and manageable or something more serious. The next reports give the Federal Reserve the clarity it has lacked during the shutdown.”
Expectations for the December policy decision remain mixed. A large share of economists see room for a rate cut if upcoming releases confirm that hiring has slowed without collapsing and that inflation retains its downward direction. Others argue that the Fed may wait for more than one month of clean data before acting.
This debate gives the next set of labour and inflation reports considerable influence over broader sentiment.
Nigel Green says: “The possibility of a December reduction stays open. Before October, inflation was easing and the labor market was softening.
“If the data supports that pattern, the conversation moves toward a more supportive policy setting. Investors then find renewed interest in US equities, especially Big Tech and companies tied to demand and investment growth.”
Government operations resuming this week help restore confidence in the broader functioning of the economy, although the administrative restart will not be quick.
“Agencies need time to process the backlog of filings, payments and regulatory work that accumulated during the shutdown.
“For the markets, the operational detail matters less than the fact that statistical releases now return to the calendar with full federal oversight restored.
Nigel Green says: “The federal system can finally perform its role. Investors now receive the information that guides the final stretch of the year. The shutdown attracted headlines, but the real story begins with the flood of data that’s about to be published.”
He concludes: “This is a decisive phase as investors want confirmation that the economy can support the momentum seen through November.
“With agencies coming back to life, the focus turns to the numbers that will show the true state of hiring, spending and prices.
“These will shape the remainder of the year and determine whether current investor positioning is justified or not.”