Three tailwinds shaping the global investment outlook for 2026
Global investors looking toward 2026 are beginning to see a set of structural forces that are grounded in observable economic reality rather than optimism alone, affirms the CEO of one of the world’s largest independent financial advisory organisations.
The year ahead, says deVere Group’s Nigel Green, is defined by three credible tailwinds.
“Markets reward evidence over enthusiasm,” Nigel Green says. “As 2026 approaches, investors are increasingly distinguishing between stories and substance.”
The first tailwind is the persistence of global economic growth that is broader than in recent years, even if it remains uneven.
“Current projections continue to point toward expansion rather than contraction, with resilience in the US, gradual improvement across Europe, and ongoing structural growth in parts of Asia.
“Large-scale fiscal spending linked to infrastructure, defence, supply-chain security and strategic industrial policy continues to filter through economies with long lags, providing a steady underpinning for activity,” explains the deVere CEO.
He stresses that this environment doesn’t require rapid growth to support markets.
“Markets respond to durability,” he says. “When growth proves persistent rather than fragile, earnings expectations stabilize and capital becomes more willing to take risk. Broader participation across regions matters far more than headline growth rates.”
He adds that this backdrop historically supports equities, selective credit and globally exposed companies, while reducing the over-concentration risk seen when returns rely on one dominant region.
The second tailwind is the transition of AI and automation from hype to hard numbers.
“After an initial phase dominated by capital spending and valuation expansion, 2026 is shaping up as a period where scrutiny intensifies. Investors are increasingly focused on profit checks, cash flow contribution and operational delivery, rather than future promise alone.”
Nigel Green says this shift is critical.
“Markets are demanding proof,” he explains. “Companies talking about AI without showing returns will struggle. Those that can demonstrate margin improvement, cost reduction or revenue scalability will attract capital.”
He notes that AI adoption is no longer confined to a small group of technology leaders. Productivity gains are beginning to emerge across healthcare, logistics, manufacturing and financial services, where automation, data optimization and intelligent systems are improving efficiency and decision quality.
“This phase favours execution,” Nigel Green says. “Businesses that integrate tech into core operations, rather than showcasing it, are the ones that will stand out. Hype fades quickly when profit delivery is absent.”
He adds that even modest but widespread productivity gains can accumulate into meaningful economic support over time, strengthening profitability without relying on excessive pricing power or leverage.
The third tailwind is the return of diversification as a meaningful contributor to performance.
The deVere chief executive comments: “For much of the past decade, global returns have been dominated by a narrow segment of US assets, diminishing the effectiveness of diversified portfolios.
“This dynamic is beginning to change. Valuations across regions are less stretched, real yields in parts of fixed income are more compelling than in recent years, and commodities and other real assets are regaining relevance amid geopolitical tension and industrial re-shoring.
Nigel Green emphasises that diversification does not imply uniform gains.
“Dispersion is increasing,” he says. “Some assets will perform well, others will not. Investors who rely on broad exposure alone may be disappointed. Selectivity becomes critical.”
He also highlights the growing importance of currency movements in a less concentrated global environment.
“When growth becomes more distributed, currencies begin to matter again as a source of return and risk,” Nigel Green says.
“These tailwinds do not eliminate risk,” Nigel Green says. “They provide structure. Growth resilience, measurable innovation and renewed diversification are beginning to align.”
He concludes: “Investors who approach 2026 with realism, global awareness and disciplined analysis are better positioned than those chasing narratives.”