Trump digging US into a hole it might not escape with tariff gamble
Donald Trump’s trade policy is no longer just a strategy – it’s a self-inflicted crisis, warns the CEO of global financial advisory giant, deVere Group.
Nigel Green is speaking out as the US President said on Thursday he would put a 200% wine tariff on all wines and other alcoholic products coming out of EU countries if the bloc did not remove its tariff on whiskey. It also follows a threat on Wednesday to hit back against Europe’s own retaliatory move to Washington’s 25% tariffs on steel and aluminum imports.
Trade imbalances are one of Trump’s top priorities, imposing aggressive levies on Mexico, China and Canada early into his second term in office.
“His tariff-driven economic gamble is pushing the US into a hole so deep that even America may not be able to climb out,” says Nigel Green.
“The damage has already been done. Market waves of uncertainty have taken their toll, investor confidence has been battered, and businesses are scrambling to mitigate costs they never asked for.”
He continues: “While Trump claims he’s negotiating, the reality is far messier. Mixed signals, erratic policy shifts, and contradictory statements are leaving global markets on edge.
“He insists tariffs will force better deals, but investors see only escalating costs, rattled supply chains, and a world moving on without the US. Every delay, every policy reversal, every sudden tariff hike sends another shock through an already-fragile system.
“This is beyond frustrating for investors. Markets don’t just react to actions; they react to credibility. And right now, credibility is in short supply.”
The stock market, once a cornerstone of Trump’s economic messaging, is caught in an environment where every tweet, every off-the-cuff remark, every shift in rhetoric has the potential to move billions. But this time, it’s not movement in the right direction.
Even if Trump were to reverse course tomorrow, the long-term effects of his tariff war are baked in, believes the deVere CEO.
American companies have already absorbed higher input costs. Consumers are already feeling price hikes passed down the chain. Manufacturing has already adjusted supply lines, often looking beyond the US for stability.
“Businesses don’t operate on political cycles, they plan years ahead. The unpredictability of US trade policy under Trump has forced corporations to prepare for a future where the country is no longer a reliable trading partner. Some of those changes will be permanent.”
The numbers tell their own story. Imports from China have fallen sharply, but rather than bringing production back to the US, firms are shifting to other low-cost alternatives like Vietnam, India, and Mexico.
The cost of uncertainty isn’t just theoretical. Market volatility, driven by these trade disputes, is creating ripple effects across every asset class. Emerging markets, commodities, and currencies are all reacting to an administration that appears more interested in disruption than in stability.
Even the dollar, long considered the ultimate safe-haven asset, is starting to show signs of unease. Investors are watching closely as trade tensions spill into broader economic concerns, from consumer confidence to corporate earnings.
A weaker dollar might have its advantages for some sectors, but in this case, it’s not happening under controlled circumstances; it’s happening because global investors are questioning where US policy is heading next.
“It’s not just about tariffs anymore. The unpredictability itself has left a lasting imprint on global trade,” said the deVere chief executive and founder.
“While the US plays political games with tariffs, other nations are striking deals, forging alliances, and creating new economic frameworks that don’t depend on Washington.
“Europe and Asia are strengthening ties. The UK is redefining its post-Brexit trade strategy. China is cementing its position as a dominant economic force despite US efforts to curb its influence.”
He concludes: “Global trade flows are adapting to a world with the US becoming no longer the dominant player it once was.
“This shift is happening in real time, is measurable, and will be increasingly difficult to reverse.”