UK new car registrations (emphatically not sales!) remain quite positive
Despite reported ‘downturns’ and a reputed seizing-up of the new car scene in light of political and economic problems, states Iain Robertson, scanning the SMMT figures for 2019 reveals more of a levelling-off situation, rather than one of despair.
The key issue related to reported facts and marketing-orientated ‘fake’ news is that no matter how robust they might be, deeper analysis can reveal a somewhat different picture. I should highlight that accusatory fingers should not be pointed at the Society of Motor Manufacturers & Traders (SMMT), the trade and lobbying body for the British motor industry, as it is only amassing figures and compiling reports based on what it receives from its members.
However, a total of 2,311,140 new car registrations in 2019 cannot be sniffed at. In 1983, when the news was released about the UK motor industry cracking the two million figure for the first time, I can still recall the ‘celebration’. It was such a major achievement, even though it was also a signpost towards today’s overcrowded roads and the deeper denigration of the nation’s infrastructure. While some people in Whitehall may be wringing their hands in desperation, to others it comes with a sense of light relief. The last time the national figure dipped below a magical two million was in 2011.
Now consider an aspect that has a major impact on the one sector that seems to be making a disproportionate amount of the headlines: EVs, or BEVs, as they are being described increasingly. While the numbers of Battery Electric Vehicles on our roads almost doubled last December (to 3.3%), the actual UK market penetration remains a still disappointing 1.6% of the annual total, albeit up from 0.7% at the end of 2018, and this after almost a decade of ‘EVangelism’. This figure can be explained away, with twice the number of all-electric models available since last year. However, to ‘sell’ them demands demonstration and management vehicles being available, which are emphatically NOT sold cars, although they are ‘registered’.
Of course, the government ‘folly’ of removing the grant aid to buyers of hybrid cars has now struck at their former ‘success’ levels, with PHEVs (plug-in type) and HEVs accounting for around 10.6% of a market that is dominated by petrol-powered vehicles (1.49m), although the demonising of diesel has reduced DERV’s sometime government-supported popularity to just 25.2% (583,488 units) of the total.
While Volkswagen is still enjoying the ‘world’s largest’ (of its type) status and the Golf model did outgun the Ford Fiesta to grab the Number One spot in December’s ‘sales’ charts (4,585 vs. 4,168 units registered), it could only manage the runner-up slot over the course of last year overall (58,994 vs. 77,833 units respectively). It does appear that being the industry’s ‘bad boy’ has done it no harm at all. Yet, Ford retains its ‘Backbone of Great Britain’ status, with Fiesta, Focus and Kuga all performing strongly and within the top 10 of all car registrations.
However, to return to the overall picture, it is intriguing to note that SMMT now classifies ‘fleet’ and ‘business’ registrations as separate entities in its tally, which results in a more realistic 55.9% share of the total. Yet, this does not account for the around nine-tenths of the remaining ‘private’ registrations that are actually made by people, who claim for a vehicle against their taxes. We must never understate the value of the amorphous company car sector, which has always been significantly greater in the UK than the government understands it to be.
Finally, the high percentage of manufacturer and their dealer registrations, which have the effect of supplementing a modest mileage used car market, can knock up to 20% off all of the segment totals stated. Unrestrained, this nonsensical fudging of the figures proves to be exceptionally damaging to the new car scene. I have friends and relatives in the motorcar business, each of whom has upwards of three personal cars a year, plus ‘family and friends’ packages (up to another half-a-dozen vehicles) that are supplied and underwritten by the relevant motor manufacturer/employer. Include ‘demo vehicles’ and ‘pool cars’ in that mix and our true market has settled comfortably in the sub-2m field, which is somewhat closer to what we celebrated notionally 40 years ago!
Believe what you will from what you read but take some time to distil the figures to reach a truer position. The UK motor industry has seldom been forged by fewer ‘smoke and mirrors’ exercises than exist today. That’s life!
