UK unemployment set to hit 2 million as skills gap leaves workers locked out
UK unemployment is set to surpass two million for the first time in more than a decade, according to recent reports, signalling a significant shift in the labour market as economic pressures force businesses to scale back hiring.
While the milestone reflects a cooling economy, training provider Strive Training warns it also exposes a deeper structural issue, a growing mismatch between the roles available and the people trying to access them.
According to Jonny Phillips, managing director at UK training provider Strive Training, the risk is that rising unemployment is misread as a short-term economic cycle, rather than a longer-term shift in how the labour market is functioning.
“The headline figure is alarming, but it risks oversimplifying what’s really happening in the labour market,” Phillips said.
“We’re not just seeing fewer jobs, we’re seeing a growing mismatch between the roles that exist and the people trying to access them. Many employers are still struggling to hire, even as unemployment rises.”
He added that there is a risk the situation is misunderstood if viewed purely through an economic lens.
“If this is treated as a short-term slowdown, we miss the bigger issue. People aren’t just out of work, they’re often stuck between roles they’ve left and roles they’re not yet equipped to move into.”
Phillips warned that if this gap continues to widen, it risks becoming a more permanent feature of the labour market rather than a short-term spike.
“The key question now is how quickly people can move into the roles that are actually available. If that doesn’t happen, rising unemployment risks becoming a longer-term problem rather than a temporary one.”
The forecast increase comes amid ongoing cost pressures for employers, including rising wages and energy costs, which are contributing to reduced recruitment activity and, in some cases, job cuts.
However, despite the slowdown, vacancies remain in key sectors, highlighting a widening gap between job availability and job readiness.
As the UK faces a more uncertain economic outlook, Strive Training warns that the speed at which people can move between roles will be critical to preventing unemployment from becoming entrenched.
If the gap between jobseekers and employers continues to widen, the long-term impact could be felt not just in employment figures, but in productivity, business growth, and social mobility.