US-China tariff truce will reset investor expectations
A temporary easing of trade tensions between the United States and China announced last Monday will set global financial markets in motion, offering a rare and welcome jolt of optimism after months of uncertainty.
This is the analysis from Nigel Green, CEO of global financial advisory giant deVere Group, following details of a breakthrough struck in Geneva that will see US tariffs on Chinese imports drop from 145% to 30%, while China will cut duties on American goods from 125% to 10%.
Though the agreement is limited to a 90-day period, its implications are far-reaching—providing space for businesses to regroup, and for markets to reprice risk and reward in real time.
“Markets move fast—and they’re going to be racing ahead of previous assumptions,” says Nigel Green.
“This truce opens the door to renewed trade flows, softer inflation pressures, and stronger company earnings, especially in sectors that were bearing the brunt of the tariff war.”
Asia led the early charge, with the Nikkei and Hang Seng both climbing sharply. Futures in Europe and the US followed suit, while commodity prices and emerging market currencies strengthened.
“Capital is coming off the sidelines, and investors are rotating back into equities with exposure to global trade, logistics, and manufacturing,” notes the deVere chief executive.
The shift in tone follows another key development: a US-UK trade agreement announced just 24 hours earlier.
While the US held its 10% tariff line, the UK reduced its duties on American goods to 1.8%, down from 5.1%. The deal also opens greater access for US exporters, adding to the sense that the administration is turning its focus toward rebuilding relationships rather than fracturing them further.
Crypto markets have surged in parallel. Bitcoin broke back above $100,000 for the first time since February and Ether soared over 14%, propelled by revived investor risk appetite. These are not isolated spikes—they are part of a broader pivot away from defensiveness and toward opportunity.
“This kind of coordinated tariff relief, even if temporary, changes the investment landscape,” says Nigel Green.
“It clears a path for businesses to recalibrate their outlook, and for markets to rally on something more than just hope.”
But the optimism comes with conditions. The 90-day horizon leaves little time for real progress if deeper disagreements persist.
Issues like tech access, subsidies, and security remain unresolved. A reversion to higher tariffs would be a major setback, so investors should watch the next round of talks closely.
Even so, this temporary reprieve may be just enough to tip sentiment.
“As equity markets claw back ground lost earlier this year, sectors tied to trade—autos, semiconductors, energy, and industrials—look set to benefit the most. Companies that derive a significant share of revenue from cross-border activity could enjoy a welcome uplift to margins and forward guidance.
“Inflation may also cool as tariffs on consumer and intermediate goods fall. That in turn could give central banks more leeway to hold or even ease rates, strengthening the case for risk assets over the coming months.
“Investors who have remained disciplined through the volatility are now seeing the payoff,” explains the deVere CEO.
“We expect a continued rotation into risk and a push higher across global benchmarks, especially if trade momentum holds and fresh earnings data supports the current rebound.”
He concludes: “The truce may not last, of course—but it will certainly reignite market momentum.”