What’s hot and what’s not in e-commerce and home deliveries for 2026
The home delivery expert Parcelhero has revealed its list of the key trends that online sellers and their delivery partners should focus on this year, as well as some e-commerce traps to avoid.
Parcelhero’s head of consumer research, David Jinks MILT, says: ‘2026 is already shaping up to be a challenging year. Soft seasonal peak sales through November and December last year and increased staffing costs don’t give a sturdy foundation for retailers and manufacturers to build on. However, there are some significant gains to be made, especially around tech improvements. In fact, Parcelhero will be unveiling its own AI-powered tracking and messaging services this year for individuals and growing businesses. Let’s start with our countdown of what’s NOT so hot in e-commerce this year.’
What’s NOT hot:
4 USA trade: ‘America may still be the UK’s largest single nation trading partner but new tariffs and, in particular, the scrapping of its $800 de minimis limit means UK exporters now find their products cost American consumers significantly more than this time last year. That is bound to have an impact on sales. UK exporters and sellers on US online marketplaces will need to decide how much of these extra taxes they pass on to their American customers and how much they are able to absorb themselves. The US is still an exciting market but it has certainly lost some of its shine thanks to Trump’s tariffs.’
3 Drones and droids:‘Sorry to drone on, but it’s still the case that drones have a long way to go before they are part of everyday deliveries. That might be sticking my neck out, considering that only this week, Amazon announced that it is testing flights in Darlington before launching Prime Air deliveries there later this year. However, the expert aviation site Airspace Global News reports the company will only operate up to 10 flights per hour initially, from a local warehouse in County Durham. Compared to the many thousands of deliveries that take place across the UK every hour, that’s a drop-off in the ocean. Urban drone deliveries certainly won’t become an everyday occurrence for most Brits this year. Likewise, while some new delivery droids could be seen on the streets in 2025, viral videos showed ground robots are still encountering issues such as getting stuck, impeding pedestrians and tipping over.’
2 Online marketplaces: ‘New selling channels are competing with traditional marketplaces – and winning. In November, the analytics company Zic reported that eBay sales appeared slow for many sellers (though that wasn’t the case for everyone). It said reports suggest lower activity in 2024 and 2025, partly due to algorithm updates and weaker demand. Likewise, the UK marketing agency This is Fever says that Etsy’s active buyers were down 5% year-on-year in 2025 and growth has slowed. Conversely, the consumer intelligence experts Talkwalker says TikTok had 24.8m users aged 18 and above in the UK by early 2025 and that 1.5m UK businesses now use TikTok to promote their products or services. Significantly, purchase intent is high among the platform’s active users, with 52% of weekly users interested in shopping on or from TikTok.’
1 Green deliveries: ‘As recently as 2024, we listed green packaging and deliveries in our “Hot” category. However, the spread of populist climate-change-sceptic governments across the West has slowed corporate and international green plans. While many logistics firms are still investing in electric vehicles, a significant number of the businesses that use their services have scaled back on their green targets. Even the European Commission has ditched its 2035 zero emissions deadline for vehicles.’
What’s hot
4 Content creation: ‘The clock has stopped ticking down for TikTok after its owner, China’s ByteDance, announced it is creating a new joint venture for the app in the United States. With its future now secured in the West, UK sellers can safely invest in their TikTok sales plans. TikTok Shop in the UK saw massive growth in 2025, with Black Friday breaking records (up 50% year-on-year), driven by huge increases in sellers (a 200% jump in new small businesses) and shopper engagement (131% shopper growth).’
3 Locker growth won’t hurt: ‘The UK parcel locker market has grown rapidly, with 21m adults using lockers for parcels in the past year. Interest is rising, as 20% of online shoppers who haven’t used them plan to try. InPost and Retail Economics report that 115m parcels were handled by lockers, accounting for 7% of all deliveries and 12% of returns.’
2 Branded post-sales messaging: ‘Increasing numbers of businesses are realising that deliveries and delivery messaging in particular are now a sales tool rather than a pain point. Businesses can use their own branded messaging to engage with their customers when responding to “where’s my parcel” messages. They can also use it to enhance their reputation with instant, accurate delivery details. It’s not only major brands that are able to do this. For example, Parcelhero is set to announce a branded post-sales messaging service option for its business customers of all sizes this spring.’
1 No gAIn without AI: ‘A new joint report from global law firm Eversheds Sutherland and Retail Economics forecasts a surge in AI investment over the next five years that will reshape the UK retail landscape. The report found that three-quarters (74.8%) of retailers plan to ramp up their AI investments. Larger organisations (with turnover exceeding £500m) and medium-sized firms (£100m–£500m) are leading the way in AI investments. Again, Parcelhero is putting its money where its mouth is. It is set to launch its new, class-leading AI-based live tracking feature in the next few weeks.
‘For more information about shopping trends and the latest retail technology developments, read Parcelhero’s report ‘What’s in Store for Stores’ at https://www.parcelhero.com/research/shop-of-the-future